October 10, 2012

Metamoris: The Breakdown and Prediction

Everyone is talking about the Metamoris event this weekend that brings together some of the top grapplers in the world of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and it seems damn near required to put up some predictions if you run a blog.  As per usual  I am late to the party, but here goes my short list of predictions for Sundays big superfight.  I am hoping to watch it live!

Important factors to remember:
  • 20 minute matches
  • No Points
  • All Gi
  • Submission Only
Kayron Gracie vs. Rafale Lovato Jr.

This has potential to be the sleeper hit of the event IMHO.  Kayron has a wicked open guard that will match up well against RLJ's pressure passing style and system.  Kayron does not have the competition experience that Lovato brings to the mat, but I am not convinced that an extensive resume at IBJJF events will pay dividends for anyone at Metamoris.  No points changes the attitude and strategy of the match, where positional dominance means nothing without a tap!

I see RLJ with a side control arm attack!

Jeff Glover vs. Caio Terra

Man a lot of murmurings about this re-match where Caio has promised "not to fall for any of Glovers tricks" this time (not sure exactly what that means).  These guys are 120% when points are being counted, I CANNOT wait to see a submission only, no points, gi match with these two.  I cannot guarantee anything but I can promise this...roid free excitement shall ensue! 
My personal opinion is that Glover is much more technical with the gi, though he has not been fighting a lot with the gi over the past years.  Terra is slick though and will be sure to bring some crazy sweeps and movement to the fight. 

I see Glover nailing a choke (hmmmm, shall we say a "Slarce"!?) in a mad transitional scramble early in the match.
The first meeting of these two:

Dean Lister vs. Xande Ribeiro:

Man I tell you no one, NO ONE, is giving the Boogey Man much credit in his match up against Xande who is fresh off of a win at the World Masters last weekend.  And that aspect right there just might be the deciding factor; how brushed up is Lister fighting in the gi?  We all know his prowess in no gi cannot be questioned, and keep in mind he trained through brown belt with Fabio Santos eventually earning black belt under one of Santos' senior black belts.  But Xande is a competing machine who is well versed in the slower aspect of gi grappling.

Those factors aside I think Dean is going to pull out the submission as he is renown for his constant attacking style and crazy submissions that most of us have never seen (google Dean Lister Kimura variations and tell me how many you end up with!?!?). 


I say if this fights goes into the 15+ minute mark Xande will eek out a choke, but I can see Boogey Man nailing a kimura or Americana early (Xande will be savvy to the foot lock game I think). 

Kron Gracie vs. Otavio Sousa:

Kron is the epitome of why we watch grappling; unpredictable, fast, offensive almost to the point of reckless abandon, Kron is a true warrior who is game!  Then you have Sousa... who is one of the most promising fighters to come along in BJJ in quite some time, and much like Kron is game to fight anyone anywhere it seems. 
This too will be a rematch of sorts as Kron has beat Sousa at brown belt 4 years ago with an awesome knee bar, and just this year Kron lost to Sousa at the Pan Am's due to an injury!  So this match up proves to be enticing as both of these guys have some unfinished business with the other. 

Kron's strength lies in his back to basics approach via his father Rickson, where Kron's strongest position is guard.  Sousa is no fool and will do his best to avoid the closed guard of Kron for sure, hoping to work his wicked back mount game.  One word in the first sentence of this paragraph is the deal breaker here... Rickson.  He is surely going to be cornering his son and his vision on the mat and knowledge gives Kron an uncanny advantage! 

Hate to puss out on everyone but I think this is the most evenly matched fight on the card and I must make my predictions with caveat's.... if Kron closes his guard then I see a triangle or arm bar finish.  If Sousa stays out of Kron's guard and takes the back, I really do not see Kron getting out... therefore Sousa by bow and arrow!

Andre Galvao vs. Ryron Gracie:

Here is another match that will be similar to the Lovato / Gracie fight in that Ryron is limited in his competition experience, but the handful of tournaments he has done are no point / submission only events!  So while Galvao certainly has the advantage in terms of experience in IBJJF events, the format of Metamoris actually favors Ryron here. 

I have little info to go off of regarding Ryron as there is not much online of him fighting. I will say this... if his style/attitude is anything like his brother Rener's then I think he just might pull out the upset here!  Galvao often plays a very safe (dare one say boring) fight, so I am not sure how he will stack up against someone always moving and flowing like Ryron.  Another factor is how bulked up Galvao shows up!  I have seen him put on a lot of mass over the past few years.  Not sure if it is natural or not, but it could slow someone down significantly in a submission only match. 

Going out on a limb here and saying Gracie with a choke!

Roger Gracie vs. Buchecha:

Here we are, the main event.  Folks are billing this as the best of the best fighting the best of the best.  I think it is a big early to be equating this to the Thrilla' in Manila, but you cannot deny that you are all curious! 

Roger Gracie has been a dominant force in BJJ winning an unprecedented 14 times through his career, beating the likes of everyone from Marcelo Garcia (yeah, that one), to Romual Barral; from Xande to Telles!  Oh... and did I mention he finishes something like 90% of his opponents via submission such as the Ezikiel from mount. 

Enter new and upcoming champ Buchecha who has taken the BJJ world by storm this year winning EVERYTHING he has entered with impressive fashion.  Strong as an Ox!  Fast as lightning!  Buchecha will bring the fire and surely will not disappoint as a headliner. 

Roger has solid basic's but he has not been competing this year in BJJ, focusing much on his MMA career which looked a bit shaky last time out due to a massive weight cut.  Experience wise Roger has the upper hand.  Buchecha has the lungs and stamina of a workhorse though and can easily fight for 20 minutes or more.  I feel the longer the fight goes the more it will favor Buchecha.

Buchecha makes one mistake though and allows Roger to mount or even back mount and it is done.  It is paramount that he keeps a tight, focused game.  I have not seen anyone really attack Roger's leg's through the years so I am curious as to how good his defense is. 

This will end with Roger's arm in the air with an arm bar submission.

Unfortunately our very own Porfessor Jean Jacques Machado will not be fighting as scheduled due to his opponent Nelson Monteiro being recovering from a car accident.  We certainly wish Prof Nelson the speediest of recoveries! 

Let the betting begin, and by all means let me know if you agree or not by leaving a comment!
No matter then outcome this is a breakthrough event for professional BJJ!  Top fighters getting compensated to fight in a format that will leave fan's breathless!  No controversial ref decisions.  No boring stall's 5 minutes in because someon has 2 points more.  No counting advantages.  Just plain ol' Brazilian Jiu Jitsu!


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